Exit polls predict hat-trick for PM Modi

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is cruising to a landslide victory in the general elections and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to become the first prime minister since Jawaharlal Nehru to secure three consecutive terms, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Saturday (June 2) as the Lok Sabha polls closed after six gruelling weeks.

All 10 national prominent exit polls predicted an emphatic win for the BJP and some even forecast a two-thirds majority for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the 543-member House. The party was projected to be ahead of its rivals across the span of the heartland, and putting up its best-ever showing in south India — suggesting the Modi wave is stronger than ever and the BJP is expanding its footprint in places hitherto unconquered, Hindustan Times reported.

In contrast, the Opposition’s Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) appeared to be losing its footing across central and northern India with the Congress projected to perform poorly in the 190-odd seats where it is in direct contest with the BJP. The Congress was projected to post poor results in Karnataka, a state where it won the biggest victory in a generation just last year, and not being able to capitalise on its victory in neighbouring Telangana either.

The exit polls predicted that the BJP’s tally will cross its 2019 mark and could even touch 350 with its main opponent, the Congress, likely to be restricted below 75.

Overall, exit polls suggested that Modi was a pan-India factor that boosted the BJP’s performance across state and regional divides and lifted the party to sweep states it hitherto had little presence in — such as Telangana or Odisha. A majority of the polls predicted that a potential third term for Modi could be with a bigger mandate than his first or second terms.

In contrast, the Opposition’s plan of forcing one-on-one contests may have backfired, the polls suggested; other than a smattering of small gains in northern India, the Opposition was seen as losing seats everywhere.

To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. But they are useful in identifying trends. The results will be announced on June 4.

But if these trends hold, it’ll mean a return to the post-2014 normal of state elections being competitive polls where the BJP faces a fight, and the national elections being largely one-sided where the BJP is able to open up a big lead over the Opposition due to the Modi premium — the ground connect enjoyed by Modi, who remains India’s most popular leader by some distance.

It might also mean that the BJP and the NDA will end up very close to Modi’s pre-poll targets of 370 and 400 seats, respectively.