Progress to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ‘very little’ this decade

The Paris Agreement is one of the major steps among several steps taken to combat the harmful effects of climate change. Despite these climate agreement obligations, countries have yet to take adequate action. Very little progress has been made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the current decade. The world is failing to 'hold the reins' of climate change.

These assessments have been highlighted in the latest published analysis report of the United Nations regarding the actions taken by 195 countries.

This year, the largest annual event of the United Nations on climate changes the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP) is going to be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The United Nations released the report ahead of the two-week high-level climate conference from November 30 to December 12.

The report was prepared by UNFCCC based on analysis of national climate plans. The world is failing to do enough as a matter of urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the UN's Climate Change Agency says.

Even with increased efforts by some countries, the report shows much more action is needed now to bend the world’s emissions trajectory further downward and avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

Global temperature is rising due to climate change. 2023 is predicted to be the hottest year in human history so far. Pressure on world leaders to reduce global temperature-raising greenhouse gas emissions has never been more urgent, scientists say.

The United Nations says that if countries proceed according to their current plans, the rate of greenhouse gas emissions by 2010 will increase by 9 percent compared to 2023. However, by the end of this decade, to limit global warming to one and a half degrees Celsius, this emission rate needs to be reduced by 45 percent compared to the level of 2010.

“Today’s report shows that governments combined are taking baby steps to avert the climate crisis. And it shows why governments must make bold strides forward at COP28 in Dubai, to get on track,” said the Executive-Secretary of UN Climate Change, Simon Stiell. “This means COP28 must be a clear turning point. Governments must not only agree what stronger climate actions will be taken but also start showing exactly how to deliver them.”

Stiell stressed that the conclusion of the first global stocktake at COP28 is where nations can regain momentum to scale up their efforts across all areas and get on track with meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. The stocktake is intended to inform the next round of climate action plans under the Paris Agreement (known as nationally determined contributions, or ‘NDCs’) to be put forward by 2025, paving the way for accelerated actions.

“The Global Stocktake report released by UN Climate Change this year clearly shows where progress is too slow.  But it also lays out the vast array of tools and solutions put forward by countries. Billions of people expect to see their governments pick up this toolbox and put it to work,” Stiell said.

The latest science from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change indicates that greenhouse gas emissions need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. This is critical to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of this century and avoid the worst impacts of climate change, including more frequent and severe droughts, heatwaves and rainfall.

“Every fraction of a degree matters, but we are severely off track. COP28 is our time to change that,” Stiell said. “It’s time to show the massive benefits now of bolder climate action: more jobs, higher wages, economic growth, opportunity and stability, less pollution and better health.”

UN Climate Change analyzed the NDCs of 195 Parties to the Paris Agreement, including 20 new or updated NDCs submitted up until 25 September 2023. In line with the findings from last year’s analysis, today’s report shows that while emissions are no longer increasing after 2030, compared to 2019 levels, they are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade.

If the latest available NDCs are implemented, current commitments will increase emissions by about 8.8%, compared to 2010 levels. This is a marginal improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels.

By 2030 emissions are projected to be 2% below 2019 levels, highlighting that peaking of global emissions will occur within this decade.

In order to achieve peaking of emissions before 2030, the report says, “the conditional elements of the NDCs need to be implemented, which depends mostly on access to enhanced financial resources, technology transfer and technical cooperation, and capacity-building support; as well as the availability of market-based mechanisms.”

“Using the Global Stocktake to plan ahead, we can make COP28 a game-changer. And provide a springboard for a two-year climate action surge,” Stiell said. “We need to rebuild trust in the Paris process. Which means delivering on all commitments, particularly on finance, the great enabler of climate action. And ensuring that we are increasing resilience to climate impacts everywhere.”

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said the world is failing to tackle the climate crisis. A message from the UNFCCC's latest report further proves that the world is lagging far behind in meeting the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and avoiding the worst impacts of climate change.

“Today’s synthesis report of national climate plans underscores the need for us to act with greater ambition and urgency to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement – there is simply no time left for delays,” said Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President Designate. “COP28 must be a historic turning point in this critical decade for Parties to seize the moment of the Global Stocktake to commit to raise their ambition and to unite, act and deliver outcomes that keep 1.5C within reach, while leaving no one behind.”

“NDCs remain the cornerstone of our shared vision of achieving the Paris targets, including keeping the target of below 2 degrees and aspiring to limiting increase to below 1.5 degrees,” COP27 President and Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said. “In Sharm El-Sheikh leaders discussed several initiatives to assist us to reach that goal, as well as assist the Global South in adapting their economies accordingly. We need to keep the momentum going as there is no time to waste or lose focus on the target."

“It is essential while we pursue our undertaking to continue seeking climate Justice and assist the Global South, who contribute the least in emissions yet bear the brunt of the most vicious effects of climate change, to not only survive but also transition into more sustainable economy through just transition pathways,” Shoukry said.